I am the epitome of a political junkie. I remember arguing the merits of Jimmy Carter (over Gerald Ford) in public school. That was 1976, and I was ten years old. That choice, as it turns out, was a pretty bad mistake, probably the worst in my career as a political pundit.
This year’s election is so much more important than any that has come before. But of course, the current one always is. I’m not sure that most Americans know (or even care) how diminished their stature and reputation has become around the world. I remember, for example, sitting in the common room of my hostel in Budapest, and listening to the young bucks gang up on a young American couple. American imperialism this, capitalist hegemony that.
I’m not exaggerating when I say that the atmosphere was genuinely toxic. Up to the point where I suggested that it was thanks to the U.S. that the iron curtain had fallen, and that we were all gathered here in a former communist country, able to discuss politics like this, largely thanks to them.
That shut things up surprisingly, and satisfyingly, quickly.
But this was all before Abu Ghraib, renditions, torture, warantless wiretaps, and a variety of other measures. Things have gotten worse, and it’s scary.
I would like to think that my southern neighbours, and friends, will do the right thing. See the big picture and recognize that there’s a need for massive change in the way things are done. I would like to believe – indeed, I do believe – that Obama’s the man to do it.
And yet there are doubts. I’ve talked to American friends. Some are registered independents, others Democrats. One is worried about the worldview Obama brings to the job having grown up and spent formative years in a foreign country. They’re worried that he brings some hidden agenda to the table.
I am dumbfounded by such a narrow view, but perhaps I shouldn’t be by a country in which a fifth of the population owns a current passport. I am dumbfounded that a man who espouses hope and empowerment is mocked for it, and is accused of lacking substance.
And I am worried that in a democracy like the United States, there can be millions of votes that will not be counted, and lineups of six or eight or ten hours long to vote. These things disturb me.
But here’s something that uplifts me: a black candidate for president of the United States of America has just addressed eighty thousand people at the place where, almost 150 years ago, they fought to abolish slavery. This is the heart of the old confederacy, a solidly Republican state. Even Clinton didn’t win this state.
Yet Obama is leading here with 50% to McCain’s 45%.
I am Canadian. But if I were an American, I’d be saying “Yes. We. Can!”
Predictions
Obama will get the popular vote… let’s say 52%, and between 291 and 353 electoral college votes.
Among the toss up states at his disposal, I think Obama will take Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia. That gives 291.
Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina would be nice, but look less cerrtain. If they go Obama, they will go in that order, and give him the 353.
Either way, he wins. But I don’t think it will be a landslide, even if indications are that he might get it. It would be nice, a unifying action, and the polls suggest it’s possible.
Two big ifs… if voter turnout is HUGE, then Obama’s margin gets bigger. If there are voter irregularities, there go Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
And of course, if people aren’t responding to pollsters with honesty and integrity, then who knows what’s what.
Good luck to us all.
I’m hoping that my choice this time around, Barack Obama, is much better informed. I’m hoping this man is even just a tiny bit of what he presents himself. If all goes according to plan, he will be more than just the choice of the United States; he will be the choice of most of the world.
And yet, I am still worried…